Let's Not Panic About the 2018 Class

Do Not Panic!

By: Darren Bennett (@darrenJ19)

Recruiting is a fickle beast of twists and turns, commits and decommits, broken hearts and love affairs. It’s really a glorified soap opera acted out by teenagers that grown men (like me) can’t seem to get enough of. College coaches are getting paid millions of dollars to pull out the red carpet for these fine-tuned athletic machines that will (hopefully) one day make their program a roaring success. There really should be a reality show solely focused on the ups and downs of recruiting. It would no doubt be must watch TV and at the very least, allow us guys an alternative to watching 90 Day Fiancée with our significant others. But, I regress…

It's no secret the 2018 class for Michigan football is not off to a very stellar start for you star gazers and ranking seekers but please, step away from the bottle of Captain and chillax for a sec. Let’s first go back to the last two recruiting cycles:

2016 Class: #6 Nationally (per 247sports composite) / 1 Five Star and 14 Four Stars

2017 Class: #5 Nationally (per 247sports composite) / 2 Five Stars and 19 Four Stars

That’s a grand total of 3 Five Stars and 33 Four Stars. At least 36 players from a ranking and star perspective should be serious contributors at the college level. Plus, you have those lower ranked, diamonds in the rough, bulldog type kids that are on a mission to outperform their rankings and stars. I’ve followed recruiting long enough to know it’s not easy to pull highly touted kids from the south or west to a school like Michigan and that’s exactly what Harbaugh and his staff have done. You could argue Michigan’s 2017 class may be their best class in over a decade, despite being down during the Hoke and RichRod eras. Harbaugh and his staff have recruited with the top dogs in the nation despite no B1G Titles since 2004 and no Natty’s since 1997. That’s a rather large gap with no hardware to show off to recruits. I’m in sales and if there’s one thing I know, it’s hard to sell a product or service or program without tangible examples of proven and sustained success. In other words, if you can’t show me what makes you better than the competition, then why would I give you my business? Recruits are the same way. They want to see what makes Michigan better than Bama, OSU and others. It’s almost a, “Show me what you’ve done” type mentality. This is what makes Harbaugh’s recruiting efforts so impressive. Michigan as a program doesn’t have the recent hardware that Bama, OSU, and others have yet they are recruiting as if they do.

Now let’s look at where we are now with the 2018 class. Almost to mid-July with roughly 7 months to go until NSD:

2018 Class: #19 Nationally (per 247sports composite) / 0 Five Stars and 7 Four Stars

This is surely not the start I or many other fans anticipated for this class, especially following another 10-win season and getting the most players drafted to the league BUT, as my friend Robert Nesta Marley once said, "Don't worry about a thang cuz every little thing gonna be alright." So, take a deep breath and let me provide my two cents on why fans should not panic about the 2018 class:

1. WE HAVE TIME: I think it's important to keep in mind we are roughly 7 months away from NSD. A LOT can happen in that amount of time. Teams that are off to a great start can lose commits if their seasons start to crumble and teams like Michigan can make noise in recruitments if they go on a tear and make the CFP (see my other article about expectations). Recruits will have second thoughts, de-commit, visit and visit some more before making a final decision on NSD.

2. CLASS SIZE: As many of you know, the 2018 class will be considerably smaller compared to previous classes. The number that I'm seeing a lot is between 18-20 guys. This is very small considering we took 30 in 2017 and 29 in 2016. Of course, attrition is bound to happen that may open up more spots but don't expect a huge class this cycle. The way the 247sports composite rankings work, the larger your class, the better chance you have to move up in the rankings so having a significantly smaller class automatically puts Michigan at a disadvantage strictly from a rankings perspective. 

3. DIFFERENT APPROACH: This is the interesting one. The sense that I am getting is that since the 2016 and 2017 classes were so loaded with immediate impact type talent, I believe Harbaugh and his staff are taking a slightly different approach this cycle. Because of the small class size, I think they are targeting high ceiling/project type players that may be a little raw at the high school level but ultimately have a very high upside if developed properly. I see us looking to fill the class early with high ceiling guys while also kicking the tires with supers/higher ranked guys. Higher ranked players often take more time to decide so I get a sense we are being more patient and selective this cycle with no real urgency to fill the class right away. 

I'll wrap this up with this: Don't expect an out of this world top 5 class with 5 five stars because it isn't likely to happen. Appreciate the guys we are bringing in no matter where they are ranked because Harbaugh and his staff have a laser like focus and know exactly the type of player they want for their program. Although the 2018 class may not have all the glitz and stars of previous classes, rest assured Harbaugh is building an army of hungry young men that have the potential to be very good football players down the road. GO BLUE