The Speight Criticism is (a little) Unfair

Opinion: The Speight Criticism is (a little) Unfair

Written By: Darren Bennett (@darrenJ19)

Fans like to play the blame game when something doesn't quite go their way. Even though football is a team sport, we still like to point the finger at a unit or player after a loss. The criticism that Speight is receiving after a disappointing finish to the 2016 season seems to be at full force right now from a lot of fans. Although I think SOME of it IS justified, much of it (I think) is unfair and overblown by a lot of fans. So, what better way is there to evaluate Speight's QB play than to take a snippet from the classic Clint Eastwood  western, "The Good, The Bad and The Ugly." For those not familiar with this film, Blondie (The Good) is a professional gunslinger who is out trying to earn a few dollars. Angel Eyes (The Bad) is a hit man who always commits to a task and sees it through, as long as he is paid to do so. And Tuco (The Ugly) is a wanted outlaw trying to take care of his own hide. I saw the good, the bad and the ugly come to life in Speight's game last year so let's break it down Clint Eastwood style:

THE GOOD: EARNING HIS BUCKS

What most fans seem to focus on when it comes to Speight's play last year is the last quarter of the season but let's not forget the guy played well enough to beat #17 Colorado, #7 Penn St and #9 Wisconsin and racked up a combined 108 pts against them. Those are three legit teams that were fighting for a playoff spot the last two weeks of the regular season and went a combined 32-10. Take a look back at the Colorado game when our defense was banged up and we couldn't stop Sefo Liufau. Speight managed the game and kept pressure on Colorado's defense and threw for 229 passing yards. Not bad for his 3rd game as a starter. He completed 62% of his passes against PSU and threw for 189 yards in complete domination. Sure, PSU was banged up on defense but he still managed to put 49 pts on the board against the eventual B1G champions. Oh, and he also completed 63% of his passes against Wisconsin, who finished top 15 in total defense last year and threw for 219 yards.

Even in the heartbreaking loss to OSU, Speight looked downright brilliant at times making accurate throws in tight windows against a top 5 defense. Trust me, I'll get to the bad and ugly later but right now let's look at what he did right in that game. He completed 64% of his passes for 219 yards with 2 TD's on the road in a hostile environment. The fumble on the 1-yard line was definitely a mistake but if you look at the sequence that followed that play, an OSU fake punt fail put us nearly in FG range in which Speight rose up, drove down and scored within the next 5 plays so really no harm no foul on the fumble. Momentum shifted back into our favor and we went up 17-7. Same score it would've been had we scored on the 1-yard line. Only thing lost was time. Point is, Speight stepped up and made up for his mistake on the next drive.

THE BAD: PAYING THE PRICE

I'll get to the ugly later (hi Iowa game) but let's look at the bad first. Staying with the OSU game, the pick 6 was definitely costly. Speight made some nice throws prior to this and really started to get into a rhythm. Bad field position backed us up close to our own goal line, a play action was called, Deveon didn't pick up the inside blitz, the ball got tipped and sailed right into the hands of Malik Hooker for OSU's first TD of the game. (insert SMH gif here). Bad play all around. Bad play call, bad pass protection, bad decision to try and get the throw off. Just bad. Speight should have tried to escape the blitz and just tuck it and run around the end or inside. All we needed was to stay out of the end zone to avoid the safety. The throw was off balance and a hand was in his face. Option two, throw the ball away or even take the safety. 2 pts is better than 7. Even though you could say this was bad on Speight's part, I can see why it played out the way it did. Had Deveon picked up that blitz and bought his QB more time, it may have turned out differently. Had the play been something other than a play action in his own end zone, it may have turned out differently. Had the ball not been tipped, it may have flown over Malik's head, avoiding the pick.

Of course, there was more bad in that game than just the pick 6. The fumble on the 1-yard line was really bad. The ball clearly went into Speight's hands and he just dropped it. There's really no excuse for it but as I alluded to it earlier, Speight stepped up and scored on the next drive to get the momentum back. The second pick was also really bad. Good protection, plenty of time to throw and the ball just sailed. No excuse for it and it was at a pivotal point in the game so it hurt that much more.

THE UGLY: OUTLAWED AND OUTPLAYED

The Iowa game to me stings hard because it was against a clearly inferior opponent and had we won, it would've STILL put us in the College Football Playoff conversation with a 2OT loss to OSU. It was your classic trap game and all the pieces fell into place to make it an all-around disaster of a game. Let me be clear: Speight deserves the criticism for the Iowa game. He completed only 42% of his passes for only 103 yards with zero TD's and 1 pick. To put this in perspective, Minnesota, PSU and Nebraska all had statistically a better defense than Iowa. To play this bad against a mediocre defense in your 10th game is frankly unacceptable. I remember watching that game feeling utter disgust. It was just ugly. Speaking of ugly, first half of the FSU game was also ugly. 6 pts in the first half against again a mediocre defense is ugly. Speight completed only 55% of his passes with another pick. Ugh.

PERSPECTIVE

With all that said, I STILL think the amount of criticism that Speight is getting from fans is a little unfair. A lot of fans like to call him out for how he played vs Iowa. I'll level with you there. There's zero excuse for how he played. It was just an all-around bad, ugly, nothing good to say game. BUT, if you dissect the OSU game like I did, the pick 6 should not be all on Speight's shoulders. It was just a bad play all around and it's unfair to put all the blame on him (as I explained above). The fumble at the 1-yard line was a mistake but again Speight stepped up and scored on the next play. He didn't fold like a lawn chair, he answered the bell at a critical point in the game and changed the momentum back into Michigan's favor. You could say he didn't do enough to put us in position to win. He did make some great passes against the best defense we played and for the most part, made pretty good decisions under pressure. I would argue 2 of the 3 turnovers Speight committed should not get the criticism that they are getting so that really leaves one pick that is justifiably on Speight's shoulders that was not redeemed. Let's keep in mind that we are talking about Ohio State. The team that is year in and year out on a similar level as Alabama. To walk into OSU, a hostile environment as a first-year starter and commit 1 true/costly pick isn't as bad as some are making it out to be. I believe Speight DID put us in position to beat OSU but a few bad calls, unlucky plays and 1 bad spot (#JTwasShort) was the difference in the game. Not to mention, the OL/Run Game and play calling was absolutely terrible late in the Iowa and OSU games.

I know I'll probably get reamed for this but I'm pulling out the injury card. I've seen on a few boards that Speight was definitely not 100% in the OSU and FSU games so is it really fair to criticize him if he wasn't healthy in those games? Would you have rather seen JOK in their vs OSU and FSU? I wouldn't.

So, let's look at Speight's first season as a whole. He won 9 games, lost 3. Had one bad game for sure vs Iowa, arguably 1 turnover against OSU should solely be on Speight's shoulders (he made up for his fumble; bad play call/no pass protection on pick 6), he made some really nice passes (64% comp), kept us in the game despite no run game (remember, we were winning 17-14 until OSU kicked a last second FG to tie), and some really questionable calls (#JTshort, #OSUrefs), and played injured. Does that sound like a guy that should be getting heavily criticized?

It may be an unpopular opinion but I really think Speight can improve a lot this year with Harbaugh's direction and development. He has some things for sure to fine tune, especially how he handles pressure in the pocket, his overall accuracy and throwing long balls. Many fans are already calling for Peters to take over. My reaction: You'd rather see a freshman with zero experience go in there instead of a guy that won 9 games and was one bad call away from winning the B1G East/Going to the CFP? A guy that beat Colorado, PSU and Wisconsin in his first year? Unless something catastrophic happens, expect Speight to start and lead this team in 2017. Harbaugh has confidence in him and we all should too. In Harbaugh We Trust. GO BLUE.

Let's Not Panic About the 2018 Class

Do Not Panic!

By: Darren Bennett (@darrenJ19)

Recruiting is a fickle beast of twists and turns, commits and decommits, broken hearts and love affairs. It’s really a glorified soap opera acted out by teenagers that grown men (like me) can’t seem to get enough of. College coaches are getting paid millions of dollars to pull out the red carpet for these fine-tuned athletic machines that will (hopefully) one day make their program a roaring success. There really should be a reality show solely focused on the ups and downs of recruiting. It would no doubt be must watch TV and at the very least, allow us guys an alternative to watching 90 Day Fiancée with our significant others. But, I regress…

It's no secret the 2018 class for Michigan football is not off to a very stellar start for you star gazers and ranking seekers but please, step away from the bottle of Captain and chillax for a sec. Let’s first go back to the last two recruiting cycles:

2016 Class: #6 Nationally (per 247sports composite) / 1 Five Star and 14 Four Stars

2017 Class: #5 Nationally (per 247sports composite) / 2 Five Stars and 19 Four Stars

That’s a grand total of 3 Five Stars and 33 Four Stars. At least 36 players from a ranking and star perspective should be serious contributors at the college level. Plus, you have those lower ranked, diamonds in the rough, bulldog type kids that are on a mission to outperform their rankings and stars. I’ve followed recruiting long enough to know it’s not easy to pull highly touted kids from the south or west to a school like Michigan and that’s exactly what Harbaugh and his staff have done. You could argue Michigan’s 2017 class may be their best class in over a decade, despite being down during the Hoke and RichRod eras. Harbaugh and his staff have recruited with the top dogs in the nation despite no B1G Titles since 2004 and no Natty’s since 1997. That’s a rather large gap with no hardware to show off to recruits. I’m in sales and if there’s one thing I know, it’s hard to sell a product or service or program without tangible examples of proven and sustained success. In other words, if you can’t show me what makes you better than the competition, then why would I give you my business? Recruits are the same way. They want to see what makes Michigan better than Bama, OSU and others. It’s almost a, “Show me what you’ve done” type mentality. This is what makes Harbaugh’s recruiting efforts so impressive. Michigan as a program doesn’t have the recent hardware that Bama, OSU, and others have yet they are recruiting as if they do.

Now let’s look at where we are now with the 2018 class. Almost to mid-July with roughly 7 months to go until NSD:

2018 Class: #19 Nationally (per 247sports composite) / 0 Five Stars and 7 Four Stars

This is surely not the start I or many other fans anticipated for this class, especially following another 10-win season and getting the most players drafted to the league BUT, as my friend Robert Nesta Marley once said, "Don't worry about a thang cuz every little thing gonna be alright." So, take a deep breath and let me provide my two cents on why fans should not panic about the 2018 class:

1. WE HAVE TIME: I think it's important to keep in mind we are roughly 7 months away from NSD. A LOT can happen in that amount of time. Teams that are off to a great start can lose commits if their seasons start to crumble and teams like Michigan can make noise in recruitments if they go on a tear and make the CFP (see my other article about expectations). Recruits will have second thoughts, de-commit, visit and visit some more before making a final decision on NSD.

2. CLASS SIZE: As many of you know, the 2018 class will be considerably smaller compared to previous classes. The number that I'm seeing a lot is between 18-20 guys. This is very small considering we took 30 in 2017 and 29 in 2016. Of course, attrition is bound to happen that may open up more spots but don't expect a huge class this cycle. The way the 247sports composite rankings work, the larger your class, the better chance you have to move up in the rankings so having a significantly smaller class automatically puts Michigan at a disadvantage strictly from a rankings perspective. 

3. DIFFERENT APPROACH: This is the interesting one. The sense that I am getting is that since the 2016 and 2017 classes were so loaded with immediate impact type talent, I believe Harbaugh and his staff are taking a slightly different approach this cycle. Because of the small class size, I think they are targeting high ceiling/project type players that may be a little raw at the high school level but ultimately have a very high upside if developed properly. I see us looking to fill the class early with high ceiling guys while also kicking the tires with supers/higher ranked guys. Higher ranked players often take more time to decide so I get a sense we are being more patient and selective this cycle with no real urgency to fill the class right away. 

I'll wrap this up with this: Don't expect an out of this world top 5 class with 5 five stars because it isn't likely to happen. Appreciate the guys we are bringing in no matter where they are ranked because Harbaugh and his staff have a laser like focus and know exactly the type of player they want for their program. Although the 2018 class may not have all the glitz and stars of previous classes, rest assured Harbaugh is building an army of hungry young men that have the potential to be very good football players down the road. GO BLUE

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Opinion: Expectations Should Be Sky High For 2017

Expectations

By: Darren Bennett (@darrenJ19)

Expectations. Whether we are talking about sports or life in general, data and stats can be used to come up with expectations on how we predict or think something should turn out. Even if you expect to receive a Red Rider BB gun for Christmas or expect Michigan to win their division or conference, expectations can be all over the map and fun to dissect. So let me try my hand at what I think expectations should be for Michigan Football in 2017.

Now, before we go any further, I just want to preface this by saying: No, I will not call Harbaugh and his staff utter failures if these expectations do not come to fruition. I am merely taking a closer look at what other college coaches have done through their first 3 seasons and comparing it where Michigan sits heading into Harbaugh’s third year with the program.

Here is a table of the top 15 highest paid coaches in college football, with the year they won their first division title and the year they won their first conference title with their current teams. With the focus being on the first 3 years, Harbaugh is not included since he has yet to finish his third year.

School	Conference	Head Coach	Division Title	Conference Title
Alabama	SEC	Nick Saban	Year 2	Year 3
Ohio State	Big Ten	Urban Meyer	Year 2	Year 3
Florida State	ACC	Jimbo Fisher	Year 1	Year 3
Texas A&M	SEC	Kevin Sumlin	TBA	TBA
Auburn	SEC	Gus Malzahn	Year 1	Year 1
Mississippi	SEC	Hugh Freeze	TBA	TBA
Iowa	Big Ten	Kirk Ferentz	Year 4	Year 4
Penn State	Big Ten	James Franklin	Year 3	Year 3
Clemson	ACC	Dabo Swinney	Year 2	Year 4
Michigan State	Big Ten	Mark Dantonio	Year 4	Year 4
Florida	SEC	Jim McElwain	Year 1	N/A
Mississippi St.	SEC	Dan Mullen	N/A	N/A
Arkansas	SEC	Bret Bielema	N/A	N/A
Stanford	Pac-12	David Shaw	Year 1	Year 2
TCU	Big 12	Gary Patterson	Year 3	Year 3

As you can see, 9 of the top 15 highest paid college football coaches have won their division in year 3 or less. 7 out of 15 have won their conference in year 3 or less. In my opinion, this is a large enough sample size to place similar expectations on Harbaugh—who would rank second on this list of highest paid coaches in college football. Of course you could say Harbaugh lost a plethora of key starters and will be breaking in a very young and inexperienced team in 2017. I would counter that argument with Urban Meyer losing almost as many starters and getting to the College Football Playoff in 2016. You don’t think the coaches listed above faced some sort of similar rebuild within their first 3 years?

I think winning the division, conference or making the College Football Playoff is a fair expectation for a few additional reasons:

1.  We will have an experienced, returning starter at QB. Although many are writing him off as if we have already seen his ceiling, I believe with more molding and fine-tuning from Harbaugh and his staff, we will see a very improved Speight in 2017. You could argue the offense will be more dynamic in 2017 with more athletic WR’s, a more balanced run game and an improved OL. All things necessary for an experienced QB to take that next step.  Which I think Speight will.

2.  The addition of Greg Frey will pay huge dividends. I hinted on it above, but by sharing the O Line workload with Drevno, I think we can expect both the run blocking and pass protection to be a huge improvement from last season. It will create more lanes for our backs to run through and better pass protection for Speight. Ultimately giving us a huge boost on offense.

3.   More speed and athleticism on defense. I see our D line as being as good as last years with a possibility of being better. More athleticism on the edges and there will for sure be more speed at LB with Bush getting more reps. I also think Hudson is ready to break out at the viper position.  

4.  Our early schedule will be favorable for our young players. Florida will be a tough first test for our young team but if we can figure out how to get the Win, I can easily see us starting out 6-0 heading into PSU. With a half season in the books, this should give our young guys plenty of time to gel and fine tune things.

With many of you calling PSU “overrated,” MSU being down and The Game being home this year, this may be the year to take the division. Next year may be a better year to do it from a team experience perspective but we play both rivals on the road and add Notre Dame to our schedule. Not exactly a slam dunk scenario either.

So… expectations. Sometimes they turn out the way you think they should and sometimes they don’t. Just like it was fair for Ralphie to expect a Red Rider BB gun, I think it’s fair to expect a B1G East Title, a B1G Conference Title or a College Football Playoff berth in 2017. But, I will not shoot my eye out if it does not happen. GO BLUE.